www.enreport.com

Turkish petroleum prices at the pump are as follows:

• gasoline prices are 4.5 TL/liter (2.54 $/liter), (1.9 €/liter) (9.6 $/gallon)
• diesel prices are 3.9 TL/Liter
• 1 $ = 1.77 TL and 1 € = 2.37 (by the end of Feb 2011)

Practically 2.5$/liter is equivalent to 392 $ /barrel. So what are the implications of this high prices. According to Turkish Petroleum Organization (Petder.org.tr) report for 2011, there are several results.
First of all about prices; The price consists of 1/3 refinery price and 2/3 tax. Therefore a 35% increase in world oil prices is reflected as 13.9% increase at the pump...Below is the table for prices in TL.

The other result is a decreasing consumption of Gasoline and consumer demand towards cheaper and more efficient fuels.
In 2011, Turkish gasoline consumption dropped 5.4 % , this has three reasons
1. People are buying preferring smaller engine size (<1600 cc), due to taxes and expensive oil prices
2. People are chosing diesel cars over gasoline cars since diesel is cheaper, more energy dense (more km/liter) and efficient engine technology.
3. Gasoline cars in Turkey can be retrofitted with LPG units with a cost 600-700$... There are estimated to be a 2.5 million gasoline powered cars with LPG units(2011). Since LPG tax is lower

Therefore, if you buy a car, you hardly give up the car for fuel price reasons. But you try to minimize operating costs (diesel, LPG fuels) despite upfront costs (diesel cars cost more, LPG unit). That is to say, even a 400$/barrel world will not stop the car sales figures but shift the consumer choice for more expensive(in sales prices) but relatively less costly(fuels) to operate cars.

References
Daily official oil prices from EPDK , https://ppbp.epdk.org.tr/Rapor/Akaryakit/Paylasim/RaporSekizFirma.aspx
Daily Exchange Rates from Turkish Central Bank http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

"The representatives of "Gazprom" has recently stated that they could reduce by 7-10 per cent of the price of gas to EU countries"

" It is reported that representatives of the Russian gas monopoly at the meeting spoke about the ongoing negotiations to reduce the price of gas from companies such as RWE, Shell Energy Europe, E.ON, Eni, GWH Gashandel, Centrex, EGL, GasTerra, Dong and Polish PGNiG."

" In 2011 "Gazprom" has exported to Europe about 150 billion cubic meters of gas at an average price of 384 dollars per thousand cubic meters. According to experts of the company, this year the average price of gas will be about $ 415"

http://novostimira.com/novosti_mira_15510.html

As of 13 February 2012
Turkmenistan gas price to

• China is : 192 $ / 1000 m3 (5.48 $/mmbtu)
• Gazprom is: 240 $ / 1000 m3 (6.85 $/mmbtu

Prior to 2009. revenues from the sale of natural gas accounted for about 70% of the gross national product. In better times, in 2008. Turkmenistan Gazprom sold about 50 billion cubic meters. meters of natural gas valued at approximately $ 7 billion.
2010, volume of purchases fell to an annual 11 billion cubic meters
Gas exports to Iran is limited to 8 billion cubic meters.


izvestia.ru, as reported www.centrasia.ru.
http://www.oilru.com/news/303286/
http://top.rbc.ru/politics/01/02/2012/635866.shtml

Iran's production: 554 million m3 (mcm/day)
28 out of 31 regions in Iran is experiencing freezing colds.
Iran's daily demand hit a record 551 million m3/day (mcm/day).
Trend.az claims a new record of 556 mcm/day
Iran also exports 30 mcm/day to Turkey.
Iran Turkmenistan pipeline capacity is 50 mcm/day.
Turkmenistan has cut natural gas to Iran from 20 to 10 mcm/day.

References:
http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/1990080.html
http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/92297/

Wikipedia
As of December 2011, the output of electricity sector in Iraq averages more than 8,500 MW, while the demand is typically more than 14,000 MW

There is a growing problem of electricity shortage in Iraq. If you check the Brooking's index for Iraq, you will see "Average hours of electricity/day" progress.
But the story does not start here.... It was chronic for such a long time

In February of last year(2011)'s popular demonstrations took place in Baghdad and the various provinces demanding better services in the forefront of electricity and asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Hundred Days give him a chance to address these problems, most notably the electricity (average hours served) and the electricity crisis has aggravated rather than lessened.

According to Darel Hayat:

that the rate of the highest level of production of electricity for any month in the history of the Ministry of Electricity of Iraq was about 5,500 MW and that was in August (August 2011) ,When you add electricity imported by Iraq from outside its system (Iran and commercial stations in Kurdistan and commercial vessels in the Shatt al-Arab) the rate of supply of electricity in August 2011 is about 7900 MW which is also higher by about 26 percent than it was in ent of what it was in the same month of 2010 (4800 MW)

Iraq seems to depended on imports of electricity to a very large extent
Currently it is worse but will be worse by Summer of 2012, Mubasher claims:
Problems are:
1. Transmission sistem is old and needs rehab
2. Technical flaws in distribution network
3. Power plants to be built

It is expected that the Iraqi demand will hit 16000 MW, not even this capacity with imports will be enough...
Mubasher also claims the supply and demand is unmatched by 10000 MW.
Iraq needs a capacity of 18000 MW and you see lots of new contracts signed in the news


Ref:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf
http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/358483
Wikipedia
http://www.mubasher.info/portal/ISX/getDetailsStory.html?goToHomePageParam=true&siteLanguage=ar&storyId=2007257

According to Lenta.ru

Turkmenistan has cut gas to Iran from 20 million m3 to 10 million m3. Even to 6 million m3

Iran-Turkmenistan pipeline capacity 50 million m3 (mcm)

Iran reduced gas to Turkey to 30 million m3(?)

%10 incomplete delivery to Europe

Gazprom" for the first time recognizes that fail to meet the peak load

With Nordstream Gazprom's export capacity hit 210 bcm(billion cubic meters), but article claims it can not export 180 bcm

Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Italy. The most serious deficiency - in Austria (30%), Italy (24%) and Poland (8%)

Turkey is supplied more than 8 mcm/day than contracted(?),

Poland received 38 mcm/day instead of 40 mcm/day

Italy claims short supply of 10-20 mcm/day (95.7 mcm/day received instead of 108.3)

According to TEİAŞ, Turkish electricity system produced a record

• 35446.1 MWe (Momentarily) - 16th Jan
  
• 34971 MWe (hourly average) - 16 th Jan
  
• 0.71 TWh maximum daily consumption in 12th Jan 2012

The previous record and alltime high maximum peak production happened on
28th July 2011 - 36112.4 MWe at 14:30 local time

Sabah newspaper also claims, maximum daily consumption has occured as
- 180 million m3 /day
- 170 million m3/day

This is due to extreme cold affecting Anatolia and Tracia...

From oilru.com
A summary of Iranian gas usage from a Russian website:

"Today, about 53% rural and 95% of the urban population of Iran, a total of about 75% of the population throughout the country, provided with cooking gas""this year in Iran came early cold, which was not observed for the past 43 years"" the maximum daily gas consumption in the industry is fixed at around 92 million cubic meters/day. Last year the figure was 72 million cubic meters/day, reports Iran News."

"As planned, South Stream’s seabed pipeline is shorter but more expensive than the Nord Stream One pipeline on the Baltic seabed. That Baltic line, completed in November 2011, runs 1,220 kilometers; and it has cost some 9 billion Euros ($11.4 billion) to build, rather than the 6 billion Euros ($7.6 billion) declared at the start in 2006. In light of that experience, cost overruns on South Stream must be anticipated, and the 10 billion Euros ($12.7 billion) initial estimate questioned accordingly"

The following news item from Ukranian news website has important information:

This is an interesting piece to read..."I see a few key elements for strengthening the energy security of Ukraine. First - development of its shale gas and coal deposits of methane gas, as well as the development of gas fields in the Black Sea shelf. The second - strengthening energy cooperation with Europe, particularly in the context of the potential construction of new pipelines through Turkish territory. Third - Ukraine needs to improve energy efficiency. Fourth - the price reform, which should be done carefully and structured to minimize the negative impact on the industry and low-income categories of consumers ", - said R. Mills."
"Ukraine has significant potential shale gas, which was estimated preliminarily to 11.3 trillion cubic meters""Gazprom" in the project owned 50% of Italian concern Eni - 20%, France's EDF and German Wintershall - 15% of the shares.

According to Chinese The National Energy Administration, China will increase natural gas through unconventional gas resources. It is not shale but CBD (Coal Bed Methane)
"China's coal-bed methane output will reach 30 billion cubic meters in 2015."
"The country aims to add 1 trillion cubic meters of coal-bed methane to its reserves over the next four years"
"China will invest 116.6 billion yuan in coal-bed methane production over the next four years, and establish 13 pipelines with a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters"
"The country's methane resources are estimated at 37 trillion cubic meters, ranking third in the world."
"China is targeting at least a 40-percent reduction in coal mine gas leak accidents and their death tolls by 2015,"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/31/c_131337443.htm

From Newsland.ru

"Russia wants to sell gas to China at $ 400 per thousand cubic meters - as well as in Europe. Turkmen sells to the Chinese only $ 250[well head price]. Beijing has invested 4 billion in South Yoloten (and still), he wants all of the gas, which can only get to a very successful pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (which he built), acting for two years. Beijing insatiable; oil company CNPC intends to increase by 2015, gas imports from Central Asia no less than 500%"


http://www.newsland.ru/news/detail/id/857577/

According to TEİAŞ figures by the end of 2011 Turkish Electricity Installed Capacity is 53050 MW. By the end of 2010 it was 49524 MW. So it is at least 3526 MW additional capacity comissioned in 2011. Wind capacity by the end 2011 is 1691 MW.

In terms of power generation, there is a 8.9% increase in electricity demand increasing from 210.4 TWh to 229.3 TWh. The monthly breakdown of demand and its comparison YoY is here:



Source : www.teias.gov.tr

The following Reuters news is interesting.
French bank Societe Generale claims : "European gas demand will remain below 2008 levels until 2017 and the weak outlook could force suppliers like Russia's Gazprom and Norway's Statoil to reduce their gas prices"....
It also adds : "SocGen said in a research note that it expected year-on-year demand for gas to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012, compared with a record 9.5 percent drop in 2011."
But the interesting thing is here:
"We believe Statoil could end up further reducing the assumed 75 percent oil-indexation for continental buyers in order to boost medium-term demand for gas (as a fuel for power generation). We suspect that after tough negotiations, it could be reduced to 55 percent from October 2012."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/europe-energy-gas-idUSL6E8C30QW20120103