NG.ru has a comprehensive review of "Energy Security Question from a Russian Perspective"
Here are some of the parts:
"Already, in some regions of Russia there is a shortage of natural gas."
"An even greater threat will be a reduction in export volumes of fuel, when and if it coincides with a decrease in world prices for oil and gas"
"Change of average world oil prices at $ 1 per barrel will result in additional lost revenue or budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 55-58 billion rubles (1.8 billion $)"
"Federal budget for 2012 with an estimated deficit of 1.5% of GDP is calculated based on the average price of Urals crude at $ 100 per barrel. Deficit budget in 2012 is possible at 117 dollars per barrel"
"Average distance delivery of raw materials is more than 3000 km (from Libya - 600 km, Norway - a thousand km) "
"The main contradiction: for the development of new oil production of the Arctic Region is required to invest a minimum of 70-120 billion dollars at partial guarantee of success"
This part is especially important since it lists a bunch of possible disturbances to Russian energy security question:
"The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in recent years formed the world market for gas:
- liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been actively competes with the natural gas,
- in Europe served the Norwegian North Sea gas,
- the U.S. actively developing shale gas deposits.
- European natural gas consumption has decreased while because of competition from LNG.
- The gas pricing is increasingly moving away from contract prices to spot, as a result of this purchase price of Russian gas is reduced."
link: http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html
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