tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14212606083388496272024-02-07T14:44:40.030+03:00www.enreport.comEnergy ReportUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger103125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-18046350705084170652014-12-09T23:47:00.000+02:002014-12-09T23:47:20.522+02:00The price to kill unconventional oil
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The oil
prices have seen the biggest decline in years. There are lots of analyses and
discussions to reachto the undercurrents. But one important element of energy
markets is,you shall not stuck to the present but to speculate on the future
developments and position yourself accordingly.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Oil prices
themselves can not be modelled for long time. IEA’s projections are the
witnesses. They do not model oil prices but simply assume the pathway to the
future. The human mind can not gather all dynamics to pursue a forecast for oil
prices. They are basically –due to our incapacity- random walk for now.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Take the
brent price for example… Who do you think can guess the prices better? A trader
or a monkey. If you choose<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>traders, as I
have done before, you are dead wrong. Until July very very few predicted the
prices will go down, all majors predicting high prices. Why? Let’s look at
forecasting the best portfolio for investment. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">When it
comes to select the portfolios for investment, economist Burton Malkiel claims
“a blind folded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could
select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by
experts”(1) in his “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”. Oil prices are not very
different. A monkey can do better. Even if you reject to make a calculation and
just spell the price of today, theoretically you will be more succesful than
the best predictor. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Or from
another perspective, prices are created by the interaction of so many events ,
Chaos theory’s famous butterfly-stormexample is well suited for the oil prices.
But neverthless we can extremely simplify everything and try to find our way
out of this mess..</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let’s focus
on unconventional oil. We can easily assume that prices are not predictable.
Because there is a two way interaction, prices create or destroy oil production
and oil production deflates or inflates<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>prices.But it doesn’t end there. The level and duration of prices are
extremely important.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If the
prices stay low for a limited period of time, consumers do not relax and scrap
the efficiency gains from the “high price era”. But if this limited time
prolongs, the consumers skip the lessons from the wild era of oil price peaks
and go back to driving SUVs. And here is the proof from November 2014.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">According
to Bloomberg, US car sales increase 4.6% in November 2014. Toyota Prius sales
were down 14%. Car sales up 1.2%. SUVs and crossover utility vehicles rose
12%.Despite being more efficient than 4 years agos, SUVs are heavyweights of
oil consumption.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">This latest
statistics shows that oil prices can not stay low for so long. Assuming that
China and EU, US will not fall into recession.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If prices
can not stay low for so long, what is the balancing price? So far, below 80 $
for brent is a positive sign for demand increase. The statistics confirm that.
People got used to 100$s and anything around 80$s is a flag for more
consumption. It is like drinking water after eating lemon. </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">But prices
are still decreasing as of December 2014? Yes because the dynamics are also
distorted by some other behavioral factors. The battle for the market share!</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia(KSA)’s price discounts <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to
US and Asian markets are an indication of such a war. It is not economics but
sentiments.. KSA feels threatened by the long term (not short term) structural
changes in the market. It has the guts to lower the prices to preserve its
position in its major markets for the endless battle to kill shale oil.</span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">But what is
the price level to kill shale oil?</span></span></div>
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v:shapes="Picture_x0020_1" width="605" /></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">EIA’s
director Adam Sieminski has an excellent answer for such discussions. The price
vs production graph for US unconventional oil explains it all. It says “above
70$, more will come”. Between 50 and 60$, there are few reasons to be bullish.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">KSA can
practically drop the prices to 30$ and even 20$ for a limited period of time.
But the production may not stop there. To understand why, we need to clarify
terminology.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">According
to Professor Paul Stevens from Chatham house, we have to make a distinction
between break-even and shut in prices:</span></span></div>
<br />
<ul style="direction: ltr; list-style-type: disc;">
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“Break-even
price: what investors consider when deciding whether to invest in new
production capacity”</span></div>
</li>
<li style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal;"><div style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri",serif; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 8pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo3;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">“Shut-in
price: what existing operators consider will cover variable costs if not, will
stop production from existing wells.”</span></div>
</li>
</ul>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Let me
clarify the logic behind these terms. Assume that you opened a restaurant and
spent 50000$s for decoration, construction, marketing etc..<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To survive you assumed a 1000$ turnover
everyday. On Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the turnover was terrible and you
hardly made 700$. Everyday, you have to spent 500$ for meat, vegetables etc and
workers. 1000$ is your break-even price, 500$ is your shut-in price.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">You simply
do not shut down your restaurant because of the short term results. But if you
can not even earn 400-500$s, that’s the trouble. Even if you make less than
1000$, you may continue the operation for another 3 months with improvements.
With less than 500$, dead in a matter of weeks.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Oil wells
are alike. Once you made the investment, break-even price is not enough to kill
your investment. Actually the killer price is much much lower than break-even
price, it is the shut-in price. Your bank can reorganize your payments for some
time, but 2 weeks of non payment to workers may stop your operation.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Prof
Stevens claims, the shut-in price for shale is below 40$s. As he claims this is
debatable…</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Can 40$s
kill shale oil? It depends on the duration of low prices. 6 months – 1 year
with prices below 40$? No…</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">No it
should be long enough to persuade consumer that prices will stay low for a long
time and he should increase his consumption. Practically, if anyone with a
Prius changes his mind for a Hummer, that is a sign. And this will ignite
another cycle of demand growth to fuel prices.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So not only
price but the persistance of this price will define partly the fate of shale
oil. As the prices are not predictable, it has to persuade!</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What ever
it is, oil prices are not only a bunch of numbers, but numbers that turn the
mills of economy and consumer behavior, a sign of health, a multi dimensional
vector summed up in 2 or 3 digits. It is not only the level of digits that will
kill shale oil but the other dimensions.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">To
persuade, the discounts shall continue, they had to persuade consumers and
“traders”, if the recent move aims to kill shale. That is why prices may
collapse in the short term, because it is race to the bottom as well as race to
the nowhere for producers.</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
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<a href="http://www.automaticfinances.com/monkey-stock-picking/"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.automaticfinances.com/monkey-stock-picking/</span></span></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/16368"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: #0563c1;">http://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/16368</span></span></a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-79432328684113431382012-02-28T10:14:00.006+02:002012-02-28T10:35:15.873+02:00Living in a 392$/barrel world - Turkish oil market in 2011Turkish petroleum prices at the pump are as follows:<ul><li>gasoline prices are 4.5 TL/liter (2.54 $/liter), (1.9 €/liter) (9.6 $/gallon)</li><li>diesel prices are 3.9 TL/Liter</li><li>1 $ = 1.77 TL and 1 € = 2.37 (by the end of Feb 2011)</li></ul>Practically 2.5$/liter is equivalent to 392 $ /barrel. So what are the implications of this high prices. According to Turkish Petroleum Organization (Petder.org.tr) report for 2011, there are several results.<br />First of all about prices; The price consists of 1/3 refinery price and 2/3 tax. Therefore a 35% increase in world oil prices is reflected as 13.9% increase at the pump...Below is the table for prices in TL.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDU9rqaF-xOxzrEbI9Y1tYAOzQS985OeGBO3FDZ8c9RDyrz-K4ITx7tax_Gp_7PFKfwyAX21hhL0XUOg7CZ0MK6B_OJnm7CqB6sBql7aHROxqrjxStirp78pXFIgdHYvPr4r-_7o5LtGrj/s1600/2011-pumpprices.PNG"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 112px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDU9rqaF-xOxzrEbI9Y1tYAOzQS985OeGBO3FDZ8c9RDyrz-K4ITx7tax_Gp_7PFKfwyAX21hhL0XUOg7CZ0MK6B_OJnm7CqB6sBql7aHROxqrjxStirp78pXFIgdHYvPr4r-_7o5LtGrj/s400/2011-pumpprices.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5714099132915389186" border="0" /></a>The other result is a decreasing consumption of Gasoline and consumer demand towards cheaper and more efficient fuels.<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9b8pRx4n-9DE28OImMW0vXUu3kdbhNc4r7F1yvDm0wPjALT4WLkQRpXJyHlQxqcddjPm-HY83OnyLsTkOIWLDSjyBRpPQpYkAUskMq4r_cY6FlVZcDc61RFD_hm844Qur7hyphenhyphenWusXe0qJh/s1600/2011-pumpprices-2.PNG"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 146px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9b8pRx4n-9DE28OImMW0vXUu3kdbhNc4r7F1yvDm0wPjALT4WLkQRpXJyHlQxqcddjPm-HY83OnyLsTkOIWLDSjyBRpPQpYkAUskMq4r_cY6FlVZcDc61RFD_hm844Qur7hyphenhyphenWusXe0qJh/s400/2011-pumpprices-2.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5714099206092005010" border="0" /></a>In 2011, Turkish gasoline consumption dropped 5.4 % , this has three reasons<br />1. People are buying preferring smaller engine size (<1600 cc), due to taxes and expensive oil prices<br />2. People are chosing diesel cars over gasoline cars since diesel is cheaper, more energy dense (more km/liter) and efficient engine technology.<br />3. Gasoline cars in Turkey can be retrofitted with LPG units with a cost 600-700$... There are estimated to be a 2.5 million gasoline powered cars with LPG units(2011). Since LPG tax is lower<br /><br />Therefore, if you buy a car, you hardly give up the car for fuel price reasons. But you try to minimize operating costs (diesel, LPG fuels) despite upfront costs (diesel cars cost more, LPG unit). That is to say, even a 400$/barrel world will not stop the car sales figures but shift the consumer choice for more expensive(in sales prices) but relatively less costly(fuels) to operate cars.<br /><br />References<br />Daily official oil prices from EPDK , https://ppbp.epdk.org.tr/Rapor/Akaryakit/Paylasim/RaporSekizFirma.aspx<br />Daily Exchange Rates from Turkish Central Bank http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-64266827210414590122012-02-14T09:56:00.002+02:002012-02-14T09:59:22.664+02:00Further Gazprom Discounts?"The representatives of "Gazprom" has recently stated that they could reduce by <span style="font-weight: bold;">7-10 per cent </span>of the price of gas to EU countries"<br /><br />" It is reported that representatives of the Russian gas monopoly at the meeting spoke about the ongoing negotiations to reduce the price of gas from companies such as RWE, Shell Energy Europe, E.ON, Eni, GWH Gashandel, Centrex, EGL, GasTerra, Dong and Polish PGNiG."<br /><br />" In 2011 "Gazprom" has exported to Europe about 150 billion cubic meters of gas at an average price of 384 dollars per thousand cubic meters. According to experts of the company, this year the average price of gas will be about $ 415"<br /><br /><a href="http://novostimira.com/novosti_mira_15510.html">http://novostimira.com/novosti_mira_15510.html</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-22119039746445486612012-02-13T11:03:00.003+02:002012-02-13T11:12:44.961+02:00Turkmenistan's gas price to China and GazpromAs of 13 February 2012<br />Turkmenistan gas price to<br /><ul><li> China is : 192 $ / 1000 m3 (5.48 $/mmbtu)</li><li> Gazprom is: 240 $ / 1000 m3 (6.85 $/mmbtu</li></ul>Prior to 2009. revenues from the sale of natural gas accounted for about 70% of the gross national product. In better times, in 2008. Turkmenistan Gazprom sold about 50 billion cubic meters. meters of natural gas valued at approximately $ 7 billion.<br />2010, volume of purchases fell to an annual 11 billion cubic meters<br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"></span>Gas exports to Iran is limited to 8 billion cubic meters.<br /><br /><br /> izvestia.ru, as reported www.centrasia.ru.<br />http://www.oilru.com/news/303286/<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 25px; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-family:Georgia;font-size:16px;" ><span><span id="newstext"><span class="Apple-converted-space"><br /></span></span></span></span>http://top.rbc.ru/politics/01/02/2012/635866.shtmlUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-22196795501242433092012-02-09T09:30:00.004+02:002012-02-09T12:21:18.330+02:00Iran's record gas consumptionIran's production: 554 million m3 (mcm/day)<br />28 out of 31 regions in Iran is experiencing freezing colds.<br />Iran's daily demand hit a record 551 million m3/day (mcm/day).<br />Trend.az claims a new record of 556 mcm/day<br />Iran also exports 30 mcm/day to Turkey.<br />Iran Turkmenistan pipeline capacity is 50 mcm/day.<br />Turkmenistan has cut natural gas to Iran from 20 to 10 mcm/day.<br /><br />References:<br />http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/1990080.html<br /><a href="http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/92297/">http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/92297/</a><br /><div><a href="http://www.lenta.ru/news/2012/02/06/gas/">http://www.lenta.ru/news/2012/02/06/gas/</a>,</div><div><a href="http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1866751">http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1866751</a><br /><br /></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-68830842202024284832012-02-06T15:37:00.003+02:002012-02-06T16:04:19.938+02:00Iraq's Electricity ProblemsWikipedia<br /><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 19px; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">As of December 2011, the output of electricity sector in<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq" title="Iraq" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background-image: none;">Iraq</a><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span>averages more than 8,500<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megawatt" title="Megawatt" class="mw-redirect" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background-image: none;">MW</a>, while the demand is typically more than 14,000 MW</span><br /><br />There is a growing problem of electricity shortage in Iraq. If you check the Brooking's index for Iraq, you will see "Average hours of electricity/day" progress.<br />But the story does not start here.... It was chronic for such a long time<br /><blockquote>In February of last year(2011)'s popular demonstrations took place in Baghdad and the various provinces demanding better services in the forefront of electricity and asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Hundred Days give him a chance to address these problems, most notably the electricity (average hours served) and the electricity crisis has aggravated rather than lessened. </blockquote>According to Darel Hayat:<br /><blockquote>that the rate of the highest level of production of electricity for any month in the history of the Ministry of Electricity of Iraq was about 5,500 MW and that was in August (August 2011) ,When you add electricity imported by Iraq from outside its system (Iran and commercial stations in Kurdistan and commercial vessels in the Shatt al-Arab) the rate of supply of electricity in August 2011 is about 7900 MW which is also higher by about 26 percent than it was in ent of what it was in the same month of 2010 (4800 MW)</blockquote>Iraq seems to depended on imports of electricity to a very large extent<br />Currently it is worse but will be worse by Summer of 2012, Mubasher claims:<br />Problems are:<br />1. Transmission sistem is old and needs rehab<br />2. Technical flaws in distribution network<br />3. Power plants to be built<br /><br />It is expected that the Iraqi demand will hit 16000 MW, not even this capacity with imports will be enough...<br />Mubasher also claims the supply and demand is unmatched by 10000 MW.<br />Iraq needs a capacity of 18000 MW and you see lots of new contracts signed in the news<br /><br /><br />Ref:<br /><a href="http://www.brookings.edu/%7E/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf">http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf</a><br /><a href="http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/358483">http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/358483</a><br />Wikipedia<br /><a href="http://www.mubasher.info/portal/ISX/getDetailsStory.html?goToHomePageParam=true&siteLanguage=ar&storyId=2007257">http://www.mubasher.info/portal/ISX/getDetailsStory.html?goToHomePageParam=true&siteLanguage=ar&storyId=2007257</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-88060348825911159012012-02-06T11:02:00.004+02:002012-02-06T11:18:38.066+02:00Effects of Cold Weather for Gas Supplies in Europe and Middle East<blockquote></blockquote>According to Lenta.ru<blockquote><i>Turkmenistan has cut gas to Iran from 20 million m3 to 10 million m3. Even to 6 million m3</i><div><i>Iran-Turkmenistan pipeline capacity 50 million m3 (mcm)</i></div><div><i>Iran reduced gas to Turkey to 30 million m3(?)</i></div></blockquote><div><i></i></div><div>Kommersant claims Gazprom has not fulfilled its duties to Europe</div><div> </div><blockquote><div><i>%10 incomplete delivery to Europe</i></div><div><i> Gazprom" for the first time recognizes that fail to meet the peak load</i></div><div><i>With Nordstream Gazprom's export capacity hit 210 bcm(billion cubic meters), but article claims it can not export 180 bcm</i></div><div><i>Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Italy. The most serious deficiency - in Austria (30%), Italy (24%) and Poland (8%)</i></div><div><i>Turkey is supplied more than 8 mcm/day than contracted(?),</i></div><div><i>Poland received 38 mcm/day instead of 40 mcm/day</i></div><div><i>Italy claims short supply of 10-20 mcm/day (95.7 mcm/day received instead of 108.3)</i></div></blockquote><div></div><div><br />Reason:</div><div>Cold weather</div><div>Reduced imports from Turkmenistan (from 40 bcm to 10 bcm)</div><div>Ukraine is claimed to be taking more than contracted (150-170 mcm/day instead of 130 mcm)</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><a href="http://www.lenta.ru/news/2012/02/06/gas/">http://www.lenta.ru/news/2012/02/06/gas/</a>,</div><div><a href="http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1866751">http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/1866751</a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-39470226486132413222012-01-19T10:27:00.004+02:002012-01-19T10:33:36.270+02:00Turkey's record Natural Gas and Electricity consumptionAccording to TEİAŞ, Turkish electricity system produced a record<br /><ul><li>35446.1 MWe (Momentarily) - 16th Jan<br /></li><li>34971 MWe (hourly average) - 16 th Jan<br /></li><li>0.71 TWh maximum daily consumption in 12th Jan 2012</li></ul>The previous record and alltime high maximum peak production happened on<br />28th July 2011 - 36112.4 MWe at 14:30 local time<br /><br />Sabah newspaper also claims, maximum daily consumption has occured as<br />- 180 million m3 /day<br />- 170 million m3/day<br /><br />This is due to extreme cold affecting Anatolia and Tracia...Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-42939031304186524922012-01-17T15:45:00.001+02:002012-01-17T15:51:07.153+02:00Energy Security question from a Russian Perspective<div><b>NG.ru </b>has a comprehensive review of "Energy Security Question from a Russian Perspective"</div><div><br /></div><div>Here are some of the parts:</div><div><br /></div><div>"Already, in some regions of Russia there is a shortage of natural gas."</div><div>"An even greater threat will be a reduction in export volumes of fuel, when and if it coincides with a decrease in world prices for oil and gas"</div><div>"Change of average world oil prices at $ 1 per barrel will result in additional lost revenue or budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 55-58 billion rubles (1.8 billion $)"</div><div><br /></div><div>"Federal budget for 2012 with an estimated deficit of 1.5% of GDP is calculated based on the average price of Urals crude at $ 100 per barrel. Deficit budget in 2012 is possible at 117 dollars per barrel"</div><div><br /></div><div>"Average distance delivery of raw materials is more than 3000 km (from Libya - 600 km, Norway - a thousand km) "</div><div><br /></div><div>"The main contradiction: for the development of new oil production of the Arctic Region is required to invest a minimum of 70-120 billion dollars at partial guarantee of success"</div><div><br /></div><div><b>This part is especially important since it lists a bunch of possible disturbances to Russian energy security question:</b></div><div><br /></div><div>"The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in recent years formed the world market for gas: </div><div><ul><li>liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been actively competes with the natural gas,</li><li>in Europe served the Norwegian North Sea gas, </li><li>the U.S. actively developing shale gas deposits. </li><li>European natural gas consumption has decreased while because of competition from LNG. </li><li>The gas pricing is increasingly moving away from contract prices to spot, as a result of this purchase price of Russian gas is reduced."</li></ul></div><div><br /></div><div>link: http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-77011099729754089002012-01-17T14:12:00.003+02:002012-01-17T14:28:06.932+02:00Iranian gas usage figures<span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px;"></span></span><span><span>From oilru.com<br />A summary of Iranian gas usage from a Russian website:<br /><br />"Today, about 53% rural and 95% of the urban population of Iran, a total of about 75% of the population throughout the country, provided with cooking gas""this year in Iran came early cold, which was not observed for the past 43 years"" the maximum daily gas consumption in the industry is fixed at around 92 million cubic meters/day. Last year the figure was 72 million cubic meters/day, reports Iran News."</span></span><div><div><div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><span class=""><br /></span></span></div></div></div></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Trebuchet MS'; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><span class=""><a href="http://www.oilru.com/news/298503/">http://www.oilru.com/news/298503/</a></span></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-18023734313590149212012-01-17T12:04:00.002+02:002012-01-17T12:13:50.233+02:00Why South Stream can be more expensive than Nord Stream?<div>Answer : <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><b> "</b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><b>corrosive hydrogen sulfide environment"</b></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><b><br /></b></span></div><div>Nord vs South Stream are undersea pipelines. But there are different costs. Reason is below</div><div><br /></div><div>Nord Stream: 1220 km ... 9 billion €</div><div>South Stream: 900 km depth 2150 ms ... expected cost with cost overruns 10 billion €</div><div>From Jamestown:</div>"<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">As planned, South Stream’s seabed pipeline is shorter but more expensive than the <a href="http://www.nord-stream.com/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; color: rgb(30, 102, 174); cursor: pointer; font-family: Verdana; border-top-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; outline-style: none; outline-width: initial; outline-color: initial; ">Nord Stream </a>One pipeline on the Baltic seabed. That Baltic line, completed in November 2011, runs 1,220 kilometers; and it has cost some 9 billion Euros ($11.4 billion) to build, rather than the 6 billion Euros ($7.6 billion) declared at the start in 2006. In light of that experience, cost overruns on South Stream must be anticipated, and the 10 billion Euros ($12.7 billion) initial estimate questioned accordingly"</span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">From NG: </span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">this is due to<b> "</b></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><b>corrosive hydrogen sulfide environment"</b></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" ><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Ref:</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; "><a href="http://www.jamestown.org/articles-by-author/?no_cache=1&tx_cablanttnewsstaffrelation_pi1%5Bauthor%5D=132" style="color: rgb(19, 35, 89); text-decoration: none; ">Vladimir Socor</a>, </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><a href="http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38862&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=95eb576355ba1b646f34e79df75a6c82">http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=38862&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=381&cHash=95eb576355ba1b646f34e79df75a6c82</a></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: arial; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); ">Алексей Давыдович Хайтун, </span><a href="http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html">http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html</a></div><div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-family: Georgia; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><br /></span></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-21968190697054048082012-01-10T15:17:00.003+02:002012-01-10T15:22:24.461+02:00ExxonMobil and OMV Romania began drilling in the Black SeaThe following news item from Ukranian news website has important information:<div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: Tahoma, Arial; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(238, 238, 239); "><p style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); padding-top: 1pt; padding-bottom: 1pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.5; "><span>"drilling operations for oil and gas exploration in the Black Sea shelf"</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); padding-top: 1pt; padding-bottom: 1pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.5; "><span>"It will be the Romanian's first deep wheel"</span></p></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: Tahoma, Arial; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(238, 238, 239); "><div style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); padding-top: 1pt; padding-bottom: 1pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.5; "><span>"The drilling rig will be Deepwater Champion, owned by Transocean, used during the operations off the coast of Turkey"</span></div></span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: Tahoma, Arial; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(238, 238, 239); ">"It is estimated OMV Petrom, drilling will take about 90 days."</span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: Tahoma, Arial; font-size: 13px; line-height: 19px; background-color: rgb(238, 238, 239); "><div style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); padding-top: 1pt; padding-bottom: 1pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.5; "><span>"Initial costs for companies on exploration is estimated at $ 150 million" </span></div><div style="margin-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0.5em; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); padding-top: 1pt; padding-bottom: 1pt; text-align: justify; line-height: 1.5; "><span>"If any sufficient reserves are to be found OMV Petrom and Exxon are willing to invest $ 3 billion to $ 10 billion in development projects."</span></div></span>http://www.oilnews.com.ua/news/article13605.html</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-29012865874868038952012-01-06T20:20:00.002+02:002012-01-06T20:25:11.741+02:00Ukraine's Response to "South Stream"This is an interesting piece to read...<div></div><span><span>"I see a few key elements for strengthening the energy security of Ukraine. First - development of its shale gas and coal deposits of methane gas, as well as the development of gas fields in the Black Sea shelf. The second - strengthening energy cooperation with Europe, particularly in the context of the potential construction of new pipelines through Turkish territory. Third - Ukraine needs to improve energy efficiency. Fourth - the price reform, which should be done carefully and structured to minimize the negative impact on the industry and low-income categories of consumers ", - said R. Mills."<br />"Ukraine has significant potential shale gas, which was estimated preliminarily to 11.3 trillion cubic meters"</span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 48, 98); font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(201, 215, 241); "></span></div><div><span><span></span></span></div><span><span>"Gazprom" in the project owned 50% of Italian concern Eni - 20%, France's EDF and German Wintershall - 15% of the shares.</span></span><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><a href="http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/order/?id=1118882">http://www.ukrinform.ua/rus/order/?id=1118882</a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-46482269242043989752012-01-04T12:09:00.002+02:002012-01-04T12:12:51.950+02:00US's Shale, China's Coal Bed MethaneAccording to Chinese The <span><span id="Zoom"> National Energy Administration, China will increase natural gas through unconventional gas resources. It is not shale but CBD (Coal Bed Methane)<br />"</span></span><span><span id="Zoom">China's coal-bed methane output will reach 30 billion cubic meters in 2015."<br />"</span></span><span><span id="Zoom">The country aims to add 1 trillion cubic meters of coal-bed methane to its reserves over the next four years"<br />"</span></span><span><span id="Zoom">China will invest 116.6 billion yuan in coal-bed methane production over the next four years, and establish 13 pipelines with a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters"<br />"</span></span><span><span id="Zoom">The country's methane resources are estimated at 37 trillion cubic meters, ranking third in the world."<br /></span></span><span><span id="Zoom">"China is targeting at least a 40-percent reduction in coal mine gas leak accidents and their death tolls by 2015,"<br /><br />http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/31/c_131337443.htm<br /><br /></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-85339200620459112962012-01-03T16:38:00.001+02:002012-01-03T16:42:53.051+02:00How much does the Turkmen gas cost to the Chinese<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 16px; orphans: 2; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">From Newsland.ru<br /><br />"Russia wants to sell gas to China at $ 400 per thousand cubic meters - as well as in Europe.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Turkmen sells to the Chinese only $ 250[well head price].</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Beijing has invested 4 billion in South Yoloten (and still), he wants all of the gas, which can only get to a very successful pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (which he built), acting for two years.</span><span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; outline-width: 0px; font-size: 13px; vertical-align: baseline; background-color: transparent;">Beijing insatiable; oil company CNPC intends to increase by 2015, gas imports from Central Asia no less than 500%"<br /><br /><br />http://www.newsland.ru/news/detail/id/857577/<br /></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-46569203687857998972012-01-03T16:00:00.003+02:002012-01-03T16:09:01.240+02:00Turkish Installed Capacity by the End of 2011 and Power GenerationAccording to TEİAŞ figures by the end of 2011 Turkish Electricity Installed Capacity is 53050 MW. By the end of 2010 it was 49524 MW. So it is at least 3526 MW additional capacity comissioned in 2011. Wind capacity by the end 2011 is 1691 MW.<br /><br />In terms of power generation, there is a 8.9% increase in electricity demand increasing from 210.4 TWh to 229.3 TWh. The monthly breakdown of demand and its comparison YoY is here:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9rGyyrifrdHLgKMuY_SOmJxpCeYHvQprbxZMUuPf0VYxf8AOM_wrCfAWnoj_GQBF93cIgSXCNsKuKiiBMkRKxcdoQU-8K414llBagWm7gUOu439EzZdZqT4KRrfuhUfeBpluT0kC_J2SY/s1600/turkey-electricity-2011.PNG"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 223px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9rGyyrifrdHLgKMuY_SOmJxpCeYHvQprbxZMUuPf0VYxf8AOM_wrCfAWnoj_GQBF93cIgSXCNsKuKiiBMkRKxcdoQU-8K414llBagWm7gUOu439EzZdZqT4KRrfuhUfeBpluT0kC_J2SY/s400/turkey-electricity-2011.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5693407321738200546" border="0" /></a><br /><br />Source : www.teias.gov.trUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-56713555208298289232012-01-03T15:42:00.002+02:002012-01-03T15:44:57.581+02:00European Gas demand to stagnate and its effect on oil indexed pricingThe following Reuters news is interesting.<br /><span id="articleText">French bank Societe Generale claims : "<span style="font-weight: bold;">E</span></span><span id="articleText"><span style="font-weight: bold;">uropean gas demand will remain below 2008 levels until 2017 and the weak outlook could force suppliers like Russia's Gazprom and Norway's Statoil to reduce their gas prices</span>"....<br />It also adds : "</span><span id="articleText"><span style="font-weight: bold;">SocGen said in a research note that it expected year-on-year demand for gas to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012, compared with a record 9.5 percent drop in 2011.</span>"</span><br />But the interesting thing is here:<br /><span id="articleText">"We believe Statoil could end up further reducing the <span style="font-weight: bold;">assumed 75 percent oil-indexation for continental buyers</span> in order to boost medium-term demand for gas (as a fuel for power generation). We suspect that after tough negotiations,<span style="font-weight: bold;"> it could be reduced to 55 percent from October 2012</span>."</span><br /><br />http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/europe-energy-gas-idUSL6E8C30QW20120103Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-76423408385303523992011-08-04T10:11:00.002+03:002011-08-04T10:14:50.123+03:00Procedure for building power plants in Turkey<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcCAUgkPnXeOEtgPxpmMHStFaKneo6MEJFz76lb_P2-kf0ks9j8FyMnCJ8rsqKt_i0Pg8Ev0KqG-pfRl-BMXBQtaoAbJqu2_WsKspVnBZHTBIqgiWd7_W54QTcTdr2oiBmXZCFH3fduXEZ/s1600/hidrolik1-eng.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 281px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcCAUgkPnXeOEtgPxpmMHStFaKneo6MEJFz76lb_P2-kf0ks9j8FyMnCJ8rsqKt_i0Pg8Ev0KqG-pfRl-BMXBQtaoAbJqu2_WsKspVnBZHTBIqgiWd7_W54QTcTdr2oiBmXZCFH3fduXEZ/s400/hidrolik1-eng.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5636895620145009122" border="0" /></a><br />Sometimes, people ask me about the complete procedure for building and licensing power plant projects in Turkey. So far, the best resource has been the Turkish State Owned Electricity Company EÜAŞ's diagrams.<br />Check these websites from www.euas.gov.tr :<br /><br /><img src="http://www.euas.gov.tr/_EUAS/Images/Banner/document.gif" width="12" border="0" height="12" /><p align="left"><a href="http://www.euas.gov.tr/_EUAS/Images/Birimler/bulten/termik-sant-kur-eng.jpg"><span style="font-size: 13px; text-decoration: none;font-family:Trebuchet MS;font-size:100%;color:#999999;" >Construction of new thermal power plant by private sector</span></a></p><p align="left"><img src="http://www.euas.gov.tr/_EUAS/Images/Banner/document.gif" width="12" border="0" height="12" /> </p><p align="left"><a href="http://www.euas.gov.tr/_EUAS/Images/Birimler/bulten/hidrolik1-eng.jpg"><span style="font-size: 13px; text-decoration: none;font-family:Trebuchet MS;font-size:100%;color:#999999;" >Construction of new hydro power plant by private sector</span></a></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-83058019823781113102011-07-28T11:31:00.005+03:002011-08-05T14:15:09.693+03:00What if a barrel of oil is paid by gold instead of dollars?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEissUh4fWgHWy3doQ4mZH__J8WL8VuyleGgOyZdWBp9G5TzcU3ljzW8GrMome3vuTIRpm7Tbjj8CExHAfyuOtO5HA1-v5Vilz5_QNJPiVb-AKev3kF1UzuG4iuhmGKqdtL-QGWLqMiR9Rjz/s1600/goldoilratio.PNG"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 253px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEissUh4fWgHWy3doQ4mZH__J8WL8VuyleGgOyZdWBp9G5TzcU3ljzW8GrMome3vuTIRpm7Tbjj8CExHAfyuOtO5HA1-v5Vilz5_QNJPiVb-AKev3kF1UzuG4iuhmGKqdtL-QGWLqMiR9Rjz/s400/goldoilratio.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5634318036799806034" border="0" /></a><br />As the trust towards paper money decreased, I am wondering whether the oil is priced with gold... After checking several statistics, there is a Beta distribution of Gold price/WTI price ratio.<br />So far 15-17 is a ratio between gold and wti. Therefore in the following month (August,2011), numbers point to oil prices of 110$ (WTI), and 130$ Brent.<br /><br />Note on 5 August 2011: I expected the panic to start by end of August. However seems like it has been already started.. So the recent panic has broken the relation. Gold is on the rise, oil is down..... This is a typical ringing bell of a recession... Next time I should state "ceteris paribus":)<br />One thing to watch is the base price level of oil...<br />www.barissanli.comUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-33182500908906764992011-07-26T09:58:00.004+03:002011-07-26T10:04:18.218+03:00Time for getting permissions for wind turbines and number of authorities consulted<div style="text-align: left;">Last week an investor told me some interesting numbers regarding wind energy consent times and number of authorities liaise with. So I decided to make my own research:</div><div>Read this<div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(49, 51, 45); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; background-color: rgb(211, 219, 227); ">The Wind Barriers project also investigated the number of authorities that need to be contacted in each country in order to obtain permission to build onshore. Denmark has the fewest authorities to contact, just five, whereas Greece has the most authorities to contact, with 41. <b>But there is not a direct correlation between the length of time it takes to get permission and the number of authorities that need to be contacted. </b></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(49, 51, 45); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; background-color: rgb(211, 219, 227); ">The experience in the <b>offshore sector is, so far, more positive. The average time to get the green light is 18 months, much lower than onshore.</b> “A number of countries with offshore wind farms have developed an efficient decision making process for this sector, thereby reducing the complexity for offshore wind developers,” concluded Wilkes.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(49, 51, 45); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; background-color: rgb(211, 219, 227); "><br /></span></div><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzisivxTylKlJ-jx7ZXq1rH0fMI4YmnUT9xv9yC2jal8SX82qEUcAHcykqdJWxPCSWOnJMw_RR_wl9gMt0bJKtQvvA4_uzJkWLadGwst2n3MBy0j99OrRibubKsiGQrDUDBJkXd_Hp9-n1/s400/windbarrierstable.gif" style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 387px; height: 400px;" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5633553005322102930" /><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(49, 51, 45); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; background-color: rgb(211, 219, 227); "></span></div><span><span><br />Ref:<a href="http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=60&no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=1834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D">http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=60&no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=1834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D</a></span></span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(49, 51, 45); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15px; background-color: rgb(211, 219, 227); "><a href="http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=60&no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=1834&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D"></a></span></div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-23243990637683684252011-07-07T16:06:00.003+03:002011-07-07T16:09:20.883+03:00Effect of Carbon Prices on Turkish Electricity Prices<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0nmQnEZhf0PHhi2wzXv8KJDySBqDSHg0upNnUpDgZTdJwPZBMVh5s5nkHn5msjoH7m_QNLgkQhnBLBOeBotIZhF_hlrMQ5l6EIKVN5m8sPkUyGCvnNpFOxk1hP-tJyKMLrLMfKdWzo6Vx/s1600/moz-screenshot-19.png"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 293px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0nmQnEZhf0PHhi2wzXv8KJDySBqDSHg0upNnUpDgZTdJwPZBMVh5s5nkHn5msjoH7m_QNLgkQhnBLBOeBotIZhF_hlrMQ5l6EIKVN5m8sPkUyGCvnNpFOxk1hP-tJyKMLrLMfKdWzo6Vx/s400/moz-screenshot-19.png" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5626596722711823682" border="0" /></a><br />Recently I have completed a study on the effect of Carbon prices on Turkish electricity prices. Here is my result (Electricity supply curve MW vs $cent/kWh)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-6088733109386667172011-06-29T17:25:00.004+03:002011-06-30T13:35:13.566+03:00IEA's 60 million barrels and US's SPRPrevious SPR's effect (During Katrina)<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://321energy.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062711C.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 336px; height: 204px;" src="http://321energy.com/editorials/holmes/holmes062711C.jpg" alt="" border="0" /></a><br />On the 23rd June 2011, IEA has decided to release 60million barrels from its 28 members' reserves.<br />IEA members have 4.1 billion barrels of stocks, some 1.4 billion barrels is for emergency.<br />They will release 2 million barrels/day for the initial 30 days.<br /><br />The question is whether this reserves can be traded freely like a normal reserve? Buyers of SPR may not sell it to overseas (Platts)<br /><ul><li>"The auction for 30 million barrels of light sweet crude starts at 1 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, with deliveries occurring between August 1-31."</li><li>""No, you cannot sell to Latin America or China," DOE said in an explainer posted to its website. "SPR petroleum may be exported only with an export license and in connection with the return of refined products to the US.""</li><li>"The US share [30 million barrels] represents 4% of its current stockpile of 727 million barrels"</li><li> U.S. holds (56 percent) while Japan (24 percent), Europe (14 percent) and Korea (6 percent) of the SPRs.(321 energy)<br /></li></ul><br /><img src="file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/bsanli/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot-18.png" alt="" /><br />Ref:<br />http://www.iea.org/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=418<br />http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Oil/6229240<br />http://321energy.com/editorials/holmes/holmes0062811.htmlUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-34529764438855211822011-06-29T17:19:00.002+03:002011-06-29T17:22:57.634+03:00India and Coal Power Plant CrisesPlatts has this news item with lots of useful numbers:<br />In India<br /><ul><li>80000 MW of coal plants under construction</li><li>Target of adding 100000 MW in the next 5 years</li><li>Environmental problems for local coal prevented 203 mines that can fuel 130000 MW </li><li>Coal India produces 80% of national production<br /></li></ul><br /><br />Reference<br />Platts, http://www.platts.com/NewsFeature/2011/CoalFired/indexUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-62348992552819540852011-06-22T17:19:00.003+03:002011-06-22T17:27:29.793+03:00The cost of oil production capacityManouchehr Takin from Center for Global Energy Studies has a brief summary of oil production capacity costs<a href="http://www.cges.co.uk/resources/articles/2011/06/21/the-cost-of-saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-oil-production-capacity"> here</a>.<br />Here is a summary. Remember that the units is per peak daily barrel. That is if you want to build a 100.000 barrels per day peak capacity for Haradh III, you have to invest $2,500*100.000 = 250 million dollars at least."<br /><blockquote><br />Saudi Arabia<br />- $2,500 (per peak daily barrel) for development of the Haradh III zone of the supergiant Ghawar oilfield<br />- $10,000 for the massive Khurais et al development a<br />- $17,500 for the Manifa field<br /><br />-$40,000 heavy oil projects of Iran<br />-$85,000 supergiant Kashagan field in Kazakhstan</blockquote><br />"<br /><br />Ref:<br />The cost of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity, Manouchehr Takin, http://www.cges.co.uk/resources/articles/2011/06/21/the-cost-of-saudi-arabia%E2%80%99s-oil-production-capacityUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1421260608338849627.post-41209857448506130582011-06-22T11:41:00.003+03:002011-06-22T11:47:12.260+03:00Ernst&Young's Renewable Energy Attractiveness Index<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRdK6xshP_UNuhzv0CJI5yP6vfjypfiC4ncDEEGkYZmGs7nW6vd2Xt8biYOj-E068M5Gxd5SuD-4gKw8a15ZNqS5UCCNXVfbGsWft8-d6FVC0-bdZE5mjv_3e0zwMbAYt8d1PHf6T8aS-A/s1600/index-may2011.PNG"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 238px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRdK6xshP_UNuhzv0CJI5yP6vfjypfiC4ncDEEGkYZmGs7nW6vd2Xt8biYOj-E068M5Gxd5SuD-4gKw8a15ZNqS5UCCNXVfbGsWft8-d6FVC0-bdZE5mjv_3e0zwMbAYt8d1PHf6T8aS-A/s400/index-may2011.PNG" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5620962464631859250" border="0" /></a>Ernst&Young has an interesting indice that you can find from here:<br />http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Power---Utilities/Renewable-energy-country-attractiveness-indices<br />The report also includes one page review of some countries including China, UK, Poland and Chile.<br /><br />Country Attractiveness Indices:<br />http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Oil---Gas/Oil_Gas_Renewable_Energy_Attractiveness-Indices<br /><br />Recent Index<br />http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Power---Utilities/Renewable-energy-country-attractiveness-indicesUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0