Living in a 392$/barrel world - Turkish oil market in 2011

10:14 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Turkish petroleum prices at the pump are as follows:
  • gasoline prices are 4.5 TL/liter (2.54 $/liter), (1.9 €/liter) (9.6 $/gallon)
  • diesel prices are 3.9 TL/Liter
  • 1 $ = 1.77 TL and 1 € = 2.37 (by the end of Feb 2011)
Practically 2.5$/liter is equivalent to 392 $ /barrel. So what are the implications of this high prices. According to Turkish Petroleum Organization (Petder.org.tr) report for 2011, there are several results.
First of all about prices; The price consists of 1/3 refinery price and 2/3 tax. Therefore a 35% increase in world oil prices is reflected as 13.9% increase at the pump...Below is the table for prices in TL.

The other result is a decreasing consumption of Gasoline and consumer demand towards cheaper and more efficient fuels.
In 2011, Turkish gasoline consumption dropped 5.4 % , this has three reasons
1. People are buying preferring smaller engine size (<1600 cc), due to taxes and expensive oil prices
2. People are chosing diesel cars over gasoline cars since diesel is cheaper, more energy dense (more km/liter) and efficient engine technology.
3. Gasoline cars in Turkey can be retrofitted with LPG units with a cost 600-700$... There are estimated to be a 2.5 million gasoline powered cars with LPG units(2011). Since LPG tax is lower

Therefore, if you buy a car, you hardly give up the car for fuel price reasons. But you try to minimize operating costs (diesel, LPG fuels) despite upfront costs (diesel cars cost more, LPG unit). That is to say, even a 400$/barrel world will not stop the car sales figures but shift the consumer choice for more expensive(in sales prices) but relatively less costly(fuels) to operate cars.

References
Daily official oil prices from EPDK , https://ppbp.epdk.org.tr/Rapor/Akaryakit/Paylasim/RaporSekizFirma.aspx
Daily Exchange Rates from Turkish Central Bank http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

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Further Gazprom Discounts?

9:56 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
"The representatives of "Gazprom" has recently stated that they could reduce by 7-10 per cent of the price of gas to EU countries"

" It is reported that representatives of the Russian gas monopoly at the meeting spoke about the ongoing negotiations to reduce the price of gas from companies such as RWE, Shell Energy Europe, E.ON, Eni, GWH Gashandel, Centrex, EGL, GasTerra, Dong and Polish PGNiG."

" In 2011 "Gazprom" has exported to Europe about 150 billion cubic meters of gas at an average price of 384 dollars per thousand cubic meters. According to experts of the company, this year the average price of gas will be about $ 415"

http://novostimira.com/novosti_mira_15510.html

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Turkmenistan's gas price to China and Gazprom

11:03 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
As of 13 February 2012
Turkmenistan gas price to
  • China is : 192 $ / 1000 m3 (5.48 $/mmbtu)
  • Gazprom is: 240 $ / 1000 m3 (6.85 $/mmbtu
Prior to 2009. revenues from the sale of natural gas accounted for about 70% of the gross national product. In better times, in 2008. Turkmenistan Gazprom sold about 50 billion cubic meters. meters of natural gas valued at approximately $ 7 billion.
2010, volume of purchases fell to an annual 11 billion cubic meters
Gas exports to Iran is limited to 8 billion cubic meters.


izvestia.ru, as reported www.centrasia.ru.
http://www.oilru.com/news/303286/
http://top.rbc.ru/politics/01/02/2012/635866.shtml

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Iran's record gas consumption

9:30 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Iran's production: 554 million m3 (mcm/day)
28 out of 31 regions in Iran is experiencing freezing colds.
Iran's daily demand hit a record 551 million m3/day (mcm/day).
Trend.az claims a new record of 556 mcm/day
Iran also exports 30 mcm/day to Turkey.
Iran Turkmenistan pipeline capacity is 50 mcm/day.
Turkmenistan has cut natural gas to Iran from 20 to 10 mcm/day.

References:
http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/1990080.html
http://www.panarmenian.net/rus/news/92297/

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Iraq's Electricity Problems

3:37 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Wikipedia
As of December 2011, the output of electricity sector in Iraq averages more than 8,500 MW, while the demand is typically more than 14,000 MW

There is a growing problem of electricity shortage in Iraq. If you check the Brooking's index for Iraq, you will see "Average hours of electricity/day" progress.
But the story does not start here.... It was chronic for such a long time
In February of last year(2011)'s popular demonstrations took place in Baghdad and the various provinces demanding better services in the forefront of electricity and asked Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Hundred Days give him a chance to address these problems, most notably the electricity (average hours served) and the electricity crisis has aggravated rather than lessened.
According to Darel Hayat:
that the rate of the highest level of production of electricity for any month in the history of the Ministry of Electricity of Iraq was about 5,500 MW and that was in August (August 2011) ,When you add electricity imported by Iraq from outside its system (Iran and commercial stations in Kurdistan and commercial vessels in the Shatt al-Arab) the rate of supply of electricity in August 2011 is about 7900 MW which is also higher by about 26 percent than it was in ent of what it was in the same month of 2010 (4800 MW)
Iraq seems to depended on imports of electricity to a very large extent
Currently it is worse but will be worse by Summer of 2012, Mubasher claims:
Problems are:
1. Transmission sistem is old and needs rehab
2. Technical flaws in distribution network
3. Power plants to be built

It is expected that the Iraqi demand will hit 16000 MW, not even this capacity with imports will be enough...
Mubasher also claims the supply and demand is unmatched by 10000 MW.
Iraq needs a capacity of 18000 MW and you see lots of new contracts signed in the news


Ref:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Centers/Saban/Iraq%20Index/index.pdf
http://international.daralhayat.com/internationalarticle/358483
Wikipedia
http://www.mubasher.info/portal/ISX/getDetailsStory.html?goToHomePageParam=true&siteLanguage=ar&storyId=2007257

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Effects of Cold Weather for Gas Supplies in Europe and Middle East

11:02 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
According to Lenta.ru
Turkmenistan has cut gas to Iran from 20 million m3 to 10 million m3. Even to 6 million m3
Iran-Turkmenistan pipeline capacity 50 million m3 (mcm)
Iran reduced gas to Turkey to 30 million m3(?)
Kommersant claims Gazprom has not fulfilled its duties to Europe
%10 incomplete delivery to Europe
Gazprom" for the first time recognizes that fail to meet the peak load
With Nordstream Gazprom's export capacity hit 210 bcm(billion cubic meters), but article claims it can not export 180 bcm
Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Italy. The most serious deficiency - in Austria (30%), Italy (24%) and Poland (8%)
Turkey is supplied more than 8 mcm/day than contracted(?),
Poland received 38 mcm/day instead of 40 mcm/day
Italy claims short supply of 10-20 mcm/day (95.7 mcm/day received instead of 108.3)

Reason:
Cold weather
Reduced imports from Turkmenistan (from 40 bcm to 10 bcm)
Ukraine is claimed to be taking more than contracted (150-170 mcm/day instead of 130 mcm)



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