Interactive Rig Count - Baker Hughes

7:07 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Baker Hughes(BH) has a very interesting interactive map, that shows you the locations of various drilling activites. It is a sample of their professional work. Their reports are a good indicator for drilling activities. For example, check the following dates and you can easily observe the effects of recession.

On 28 March 2008, there were 1808 rig counts by BH, by the same period in 2009, this number dropped to 1085. A staggering 769 drop. A 42% drop....Report for 30 March 2009.

You can also access the interactive web page from here .or here.
From the page, you can select from various parameters and see the latest data. It is limited to US however it gives a good activity about oil in the world's biggest consumer. On the date I checked it, gas activity was higher than oil activity.



Links:

Report: http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/Reports/StandardReport.aspx

Interactive map: http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/RigCounts/default2.aspx
or try this link: http://gis.bakerhughesdirect.com/RigCounts/

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World Energy Projection System of 2002

6:54 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
World Energy Projection system is an old model that Department of Energy, US once used for some of their projections. It looks like more of an accountant's balance sheets, but you can download and check the validity of the model for fun, it will be a good exercise.



Model can be downloaded from here and documentation is here. In the document you can find the relevant informations about using the files.

"The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer-based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product [GDP]), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/weps/
Doc: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m05097.pdf

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Building Dashboards - Lucid Design

6:39 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
While surfing on the net to find some interactive pages about Gridwise Goodwatts, I found the following pages. Building dashboards are interactive webpages that show you the resources you use ( electricity, water, gas) as well as solar generation and water recycling (grey water.). They have a starter package and some of their customers are big names (Like Yahoo). The current use of this technology may be to improve energy use of people, but this is step forward for smart grid-metering technologies. There is a link to the demo page too.
Lucid Design Group explains some of their services as follows :

".... features an easy-to-understand, web-based display for providing occupants with real-time feedback on resource use. Check out your consumption right now, or look at consumption patterns over time. See how many dollars you're spending or pounds of carbon dioxide you're emitting into the atmosphere. Go a step further and instantly compare your building's usage with another monitored building, or launch a competition and rival your friends and coworkers to reduce their consumption."

They also have a demo page for you to see what other things is possible with the starter kit. You can compare per person consumption, between different buildings and etc. 5 stars




http://www.luciddesigngroup.com/
Demo: http://www.buildingdashboard.com/demo/starter/
Other dashboards: http://buildingdashboard.com/clients/uvm/davis/ , Cubolder , EcoManor, Yahoo , SweetWater

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A new financial system?

11:20 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Nowadays when making oil price forecasts, one should also consider how the dollar's value will change. Before the G20 in London, interesting discussions are going on.

For example read this from WSJ:

"China called for the creation of a new currency to eventually replace the dollar as the world's standard, proposing a sweeping overhaul of global finance that reflects developing nations' growing unhappiness with the U.S. role in the world economy."

China is not alone, Stiglitz says :"The dollar reserve system is part of the problem," Joseph Stiglitz, the Columbia University economist, said in a speech in Shanghai last week, because it meant so much of the world's cash was funneled into the U.S. "We need a global reserve system," he said in the speech. (WSJ)


Now check the currency reserves of nations:


If there are concerns about dollar's long term future (we do not expect any radical changes in the short term), oil's value in terms of other commodities may stay same but in terms of dollars oil prices may rise.





WSJ : China Takes Aim at Dollar
Chinese Central Bank : Reform the International Monetary System


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Crude oil - Gold - Euro/USD parity

8:41 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
The relation between crude oil vs gold and euro is the question I am looking for some time. From my initial studies, following graphs give an idea.

In this graph, log of crude oil is vertical axis and log of crude oil is the horizontal axis

Then check this one:


My conclusions:
1 - Crude and square of euro/dollar parity is in harmony
2 - Recession started hitting by the end of september 2008
3 - Crude and gold relation is broken for sometime
4 - Observe the euro's appreciation against dollar and rise in crude prices

All this means is crude prices will rise, since dollar will lose some of its value. By the end of May 2009, there is a great possibility that we may see 65-70 $ if dollar continues its slow depreciation. May is the start of driving season.



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World Energy Geology : Interactive Map

1:43 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
US Geological Survey is one of the most important sources for world petroleum endowment. They have an interactive map, which eases to plot the results of survey. The results of their studies are used as inputs to other very important studies carried by international organizations such as IEA. Some criticize USGS for being bountiful in their expectations. Especially after last year's oil price hike, experts talked about re-examining USGS data.


Neverthless, map is quite nice and user friendly. Also check the other web pages as well. Beware that the results may be old (from 2000).


Map can be reached from this website:
Also check :

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Bottom of economic crises: Are we there yet?

11:09 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
One of my friends has shared the following article from New York Times which I enjoyed reading. The article tries to find out whether we reached the "bottom of recession", using several indicators. It looks to three indicators:

1. Stocks:
"Price to earning ratio. History shows that the stock market usually hits bottom before the economy does.The price-to-earnings ratio — which investors use to gauge how much they are paying for each dollar of corporate profit — is around 13, about 20 percent lower than the average of the last 130 years."

2. Home prices: "Barry Ritholtz, a professional investor who writes the popular economics blog The Big Picture, has a simpler, more subjective, approach: Assume a young couple earning two modest incomes is looking to buy a two- or three-bedroom starter home in a middle-income neighborhood in your city. Can they qualify for a mortgage and afford to buy it?“If the answer is no, then you are not at a bottom in housing,” said Mr. Ritholtz, who estimates that the decline in national home prices is only half-complete. "

3. Consumer spending:" The savings rate — the amount of money consumers did not spend — jumped to about 3 percent late last year, from practically zero, still far below its postwar average of 7 percent. ... In a study of economic cycles, Edward E. Leamer, an economist at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California at Los Angeles, found that auto sales and home building tended to lead recoveries."


Also, mentioned in the article is the 12% shrinkage of imports and exports of US in January.

Take that and compare with the news about Chinese exports appeared in EconBrowser.com.


According to Wang Qian, a Hong Kong-based economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. :
"There's no hope for export demand to recover any time soon. ... How fast imports recover depends on how soon the government's stimulus package kicks in and creates real demand in major industries." (Bloomberg)

I think the most amusing part of the story is also from New York Times : "Tobias Levkovich, chief United States equity strategist at Citigroup, has another indicator for spotting when we have hit bottom: When we stop behaving like children in the backseat of the car asking their parents, “Are we there yet?” "
Sources:

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Oilwatch : March 2009

10:05 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
"The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports." (The Oil Drum).


This report is quite useful for getting information about world's prominent oil producers and consumers. It is like an open source, illustrated version of IEA's Oil Market Report. The monthly is prepared by "Peak Oil Netherlands". In this edition, check for Russian, Egyptian, Malaysian and Mexican productions and US, OECD and EU consumptions.
You can download the report from here. Following excerpts are from the intro:

"Instead the cartel is going to focus on reaching 100% compliance with the earlier cuts totalling 4.2 million b/d, between now and its next meeting on 28 of May. So far 80% compliance has been reached, with 3.4 million b/d from 36.08 million b/d total produced last October being cut, resulting in 32.68 million b/d of liquids produced in February 2009. "

"OECD demand in December 2008 was 788,000 b/d lower than in july 2008, OPEC-11 (excluding iraq) was 650,000 b/d lower than in July, and Chinese demand was 687,000 b/d lower. A total decline of more than 2 million b/d, while OPEC in December had only cut production by 1.26 million b/d."

"More recent figures from the Energy Information Administration show that crude oil stocks in the USA increased from 334 million barrels in January to 350 million barrels in February, a level not seen since the beginning of the 1990s. On top of the commercial stocks on land the 50 to 80 million barrels of floating storage in oil tankers on the seas still remain."



Oil Watch Monthly: March 2009
http://www.peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009_march_oilwatch_monthly.pdf

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Cost of Building A New Generating Plant

6:06 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Maybe a bit of history but the following numbers worth a look. This is published in June, 2008. Dolar is appreciated since then and commodity prices have collapsed.

Check this report (Page 11)
"What do all these cost increases mean for the cost of building a new generating
plant?"


"No one knows precisely. It’s difficult to get consistent and trustworthy numbers about plant costs, both because they are commercially sensitive and because the assumptions behind them vary greatly. The numbers reflected on the slide come from a variety of sources and include different assumptions about, for example, location or exactly what facilities are included in the estimate. To take one example: Two recent nuclear procurements in South Carolina and Georgia produced cost estimates of $5,100 and $6,400 per kW, respectively, for the same technology. We have been told that most of the difference may be due to different uses of Allowances for Funds Used during Construction – AFUDC."


Source:http://www.ferc.gov/legal/staff-reports/06-19-08-cost-electric.pdf




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