www.enreport.com

Turkish petroleum prices at the pump are as follows:

• gasoline prices are 4.5 TL/liter (2.54 $/liter), (1.9 €/liter) (9.6 $/gallon)
• diesel prices are 3.9 TL/Liter
• 1 $ = 1.77 TL and 1 € = 2.37 (by the end of Feb 2011)

Practically 2.5$/liter is equivalent to 392 $ /barrel. So what are the implications of this high prices. According to Turkish Petroleum Organization (Petder.org.tr) report for 2011, there are several results.
First of all about prices; The price consists of 1/3 refinery price and 2/3 tax. Therefore a 35% increase in world oil prices is reflected as 13.9% increase at the pump...Below is the table for prices in TL.

The other result is a decreasing consumption of Gasoline and consumer demand towards cheaper and more efficient fuels.
In 2011, Turkish gasoline consumption dropped 5.4 % , this has three reasons
1. People are buying preferring smaller engine size (<1600 cc), due to taxes and expensive oil prices
2. People are chosing diesel cars over gasoline cars since diesel is cheaper, more energy dense (more km/liter) and efficient engine technology.
3. Gasoline cars in Turkey can be retrofitted with LPG units with a cost 600-700$... There are estimated to be a 2.5 million gasoline powered cars with LPG units(2011). Since LPG tax is lower

Therefore, if you buy a car, you hardly give up the car for fuel price reasons. But you try to minimize operating costs (diesel, LPG fuels) despite upfront costs (diesel cars cost more, LPG unit). That is to say, even a 400$/barrel world will not stop the car sales figures but shift the consumer choice for more expensive(in sales prices) but relatively less costly(fuels) to operate cars.

References
Daily official oil prices from EPDK , https://ppbp.epdk.org.tr/Rapor/Akaryakit/Paylasim/RaporSekizFirma.aspx
Daily Exchange Rates from Turkish Central Bank http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/

According to TEİAŞ, Turkish electricity system produced a record

• 35446.1 MWe (Momentarily) - 16th Jan
  
• 34971 MWe (hourly average) - 16 th Jan
  
• 0.71 TWh maximum daily consumption in 12th Jan 2012

The previous record and alltime high maximum peak production happened on
28th July 2011 - 36112.4 MWe at 14:30 local time

Sabah newspaper also claims, maximum daily consumption has occured as
- 180 million m3 /day
- 170 million m3/day

This is due to extreme cold affecting Anatolia and Tracia...

According to TEİAŞ figures by the end of 2011 Turkish Electricity Installed Capacity is 53050 MW. By the end of 2010 it was 49524 MW. So it is at least 3526 MW additional capacity comissioned in 2011. Wind capacity by the end 2011 is 1691 MW.

In terms of power generation, there is a 8.9% increase in electricity demand increasing from 210.4 TWh to 229.3 TWh. The monthly breakdown of demand and its comparison YoY is here:



Source : www.teias.gov.tr

Recently I have completed a study on the effect of Carbon prices on Turkish electricity prices. Here is my result (Electricity supply curve MW vs $cent/kWh)

First of all check:
http://www.teias.gov.tr/yukdagitim/kuruluguc.xls

You will see that Turkish Installed Capacity is: 44472.5 MWs (as of this month). You can also the wind energy column to make sure that it is updated:): 738 MW

Then check: http://www.teias.gov.tr/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri.xls

you will see that 2009 on month by month basis lower than 2008.

Then see the latest statistics from TEİAS regarding "production capacity and peaks" here
http://www.teias.gov.tr/istatistik2008/14.xls


From the last column check that
Installed capacity @ 2008: 41817 MW
Peak load @2008 : 30842 MW
See the "Gross Demand" and "Firm Production" columns

Result:
We didn't have such a big problem in 2008. Our Installed Capacity is now 2600 MW higher but our demand and peak is 4% lower than 2008. The hardest years for Turkish system are the drought years, it resembles Norway's system in that sense due to high hydro capacity.

As a rule of thumb : (safe side-approximation)
Multiply the installed capacity by 4650 hours for higher scenario 4500 for lower scenario(capacity utilization sort of thing, this is a rough approximation, use Enerji Ekonomisi by Behçet Yücel for detailed calculation- and also note that system has the ability to achieve more than 5000 hours average).

If the resulted number is less than the expected demand then it means the system is in stress.

So
44472.5 MW * 4500 hours = 200 TWh
44472.5 MW * 4650 hours = 206.8 TWh

Expected demand for 2009 is 194 TWhs.
Expected demand for 2010 is 206.6 TWhs.

So without any additional capacity for the next year this capacity should be enough till the end of 2010 even for the first 6 months of 2011. I personally expect Turkey's installed capacity to reach close to the 50000 MW in 2012

One of the many questions regularly discussed in Turkey is whether the energy demand projections are faulty or there is an "age-old" program that doesn't fit today's world. To challenge this question and to show that results are a product of inputs, I made an approximation to Turkish Energy Ministry's MAED results of 2004. The following excel sheet is a result of my work. What I basically did was to take the published forecasts from the ministry's web site and make the appropiate approximations. By permission, I posted it on several forums. And no one criticized it, and I received emails for how to use the model or methodology!
The main point in this work is as long as you put economic realisations model corrects itself. At the end even some Nobel price winning economists do not owe their success to that software or this software but a bunch of simple equations.
The following forecast assumes 2009 is not a negative growth year.
My forecast for March is as follows (for total energy):

And electricity demand is as follows


Excel file is here, use with permission ( The economic and demographic growth rates are not reflecting the real values)