Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Effects of Cold Weather for Gas Supplies in Europe and Middle East

11:02 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
According to Lenta.ru
Turkmenistan has cut gas to Iran from 20 million m3 to 10 million m3. Even to 6 million m3
Iran-Turkmenistan pipeline capacity 50 million m3 (mcm)
Iran reduced gas to Turkey to 30 million m3(?)
Kommersant claims Gazprom has not fulfilled its duties to Europe
%10 incomplete delivery to Europe
Gazprom" for the first time recognizes that fail to meet the peak load
With Nordstream Gazprom's export capacity hit 210 bcm(billion cubic meters), but article claims it can not export 180 bcm
Poland, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece and Italy. The most serious deficiency - in Austria (30%), Italy (24%) and Poland (8%)
Turkey is supplied more than 8 mcm/day than contracted(?),
Poland received 38 mcm/day instead of 40 mcm/day
Italy claims short supply of 10-20 mcm/day (95.7 mcm/day received instead of 108.3)

Reason:
Cold weather
Reduced imports from Turkmenistan (from 40 bcm to 10 bcm)
Ukraine is claimed to be taking more than contracted (150-170 mcm/day instead of 130 mcm)



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Energy Security question from a Russian Perspective

3:45 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
NG.ru has a comprehensive review of "Energy Security Question from a Russian Perspective"

Here are some of the parts:

"Already, in some regions of Russia there is a shortage of natural gas."
"An even greater threat will be a reduction in export volumes of fuel, when and if it coincides with a decrease in world prices for oil and gas"
"Change of average world oil prices at $ 1 per barrel will result in additional lost revenue or budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 55-58 billion rubles (1.8 billion $)"

"Federal budget for 2012 with an estimated deficit of 1.5% of GDP is calculated based on the average price of Urals crude at $ 100 per barrel. Deficit budget in 2012 is possible at 117 dollars per barrel"

"Average distance delivery of raw materials is more than 3000 km (from Libya - 600 km, Norway - a thousand km) "

"The main contradiction: for the development of new oil production of the Arctic Region is required to invest a minimum of 70-120 billion dollars at partial guarantee of success"

This part is especially important since it lists a bunch of possible disturbances to Russian energy security question:

"The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in recent years formed the world market for gas:
  • liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been actively competes with the natural gas,
  • in Europe served the Norwegian North Sea gas,
  • the U.S. actively developing shale gas deposits.
  • European natural gas consumption has decreased while because of competition from LNG.
  • The gas pricing is increasingly moving away from contract prices to spot, as a result of this purchase price of Russian gas is reduced."

link: http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html

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