Showing posts with label xls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label xls. Show all posts

World Energy Projection System of 2002

6:54 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
World Energy Projection system is an old model that Department of Energy, US once used for some of their projections. It looks like more of an accountant's balance sheets, but you can download and check the validity of the model for fun, it will be a good exercise.



Model can be downloaded from here and documentation is here. In the document you can find the relevant informations about using the files.

"The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the U.S. Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer-based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product [GDP]), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook."

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/weps/
Doc: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m05097.pdf

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Turkish Electricity and Energy Demand until 2020

1:10 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
One of the many questions regularly discussed in Turkey is whether the energy demand projections are faulty or there is an "age-old" program that doesn't fit today's world. To challenge this question and to show that results are a product of inputs, I made an approximation to Turkish Energy Ministry's MAED results of 2004. The following excel sheet is a result of my work. What I basically did was to take the published forecasts from the ministry's web site and make the appropiate approximations. By permission, I posted it on several forums. And no one criticized it, and I received emails for how to use the model or methodology!
The main point in this work is as long as you put economic realisations model corrects itself. At the end even some Nobel price winning economists do not owe their success to that software or this software but a bunch of simple equations.
The following forecast assumes 2009 is not a negative growth year.
My forecast for March is as follows (for total energy):

And electricity demand is as follows


Excel file is here, use with permission ( The economic and demographic growth rates are not reflecting the real values)

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