www.enreport.com

This is an interesting piece to read..."I see a few key elements for strengthening the energy security of Ukraine. First - development of its shale gas and coal deposits of methane gas, as well as the development of gas fields in the Black Sea shelf. The second - strengthening energy cooperation with Europe, particularly in the context of the potential construction of new pipelines through Turkish territory. Third - Ukraine needs to improve energy efficiency. Fourth - the price reform, which should be done carefully and structured to minimize the negative impact on the industry and low-income categories of consumers ", - said R. Mills."
"Ukraine has significant potential shale gas, which was estimated preliminarily to 11.3 trillion cubic meters""Gazprom" in the project owned 50% of Italian concern Eni - 20%, France's EDF and German Wintershall - 15% of the shares.

According to Chinese The National Energy Administration, China will increase natural gas through unconventional gas resources. It is not shale but CBD (Coal Bed Methane)
"China's coal-bed methane output will reach 30 billion cubic meters in 2015."
"The country aims to add 1 trillion cubic meters of coal-bed methane to its reserves over the next four years"
"China will invest 116.6 billion yuan in coal-bed methane production over the next four years, and establish 13 pipelines with a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters"
"The country's methane resources are estimated at 37 trillion cubic meters, ranking third in the world."
"China is targeting at least a 40-percent reduction in coal mine gas leak accidents and their death tolls by 2015,"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/31/c_131337443.htm

From Newsland.ru

"Russia wants to sell gas to China at $ 400 per thousand cubic meters - as well as in Europe. Turkmen sells to the Chinese only $ 250[well head price]. Beijing has invested 4 billion in South Yoloten (and still), he wants all of the gas, which can only get to a very successful pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (which he built), acting for two years. Beijing insatiable; oil company CNPC intends to increase by 2015, gas imports from Central Asia no less than 500%"


http://www.newsland.ru/news/detail/id/857577/

According to TEİAŞ figures by the end of 2011 Turkish Electricity Installed Capacity is 53050 MW. By the end of 2010 it was 49524 MW. So it is at least 3526 MW additional capacity comissioned in 2011. Wind capacity by the end 2011 is 1691 MW.

In terms of power generation, there is a 8.9% increase in electricity demand increasing from 210.4 TWh to 229.3 TWh. The monthly breakdown of demand and its comparison YoY is here:



Source : www.teias.gov.tr

The following Reuters news is interesting.
French bank Societe Generale claims : "European gas demand will remain below 2008 levels until 2017 and the weak outlook could force suppliers like Russia's Gazprom and Norway's Statoil to reduce their gas prices"....
It also adds : "SocGen said in a research note that it expected year-on-year demand for gas to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012, compared with a record 9.5 percent drop in 2011."
But the interesting thing is here:
"We believe Statoil could end up further reducing the assumed 75 percent oil-indexation for continental buyers in order to boost medium-term demand for gas (as a fuel for power generation). We suspect that after tough negotiations, it could be reduced to 55 percent from October 2012."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/europe-energy-gas-idUSL6E8C30QW20120103

Sometimes, people ask me about the complete procedure for building and licensing power plant projects in Turkey. So far, the best resource has been the Turkish State Owned Electricity Company EÜAŞ's diagrams.
Check these websites from www.euas.gov.tr :

Construction of new thermal power plant by private sector

Construction of new hydro power plant by private sector

As the trust towards paper money decreased, I am wondering whether the oil is priced with gold... After checking several statistics, there is a Beta distribution of Gold price/WTI price ratio.
So far 15-17 is a ratio between gold and wti. Therefore in the following month (August,2011), numbers point to oil prices of 110$ (WTI), and 130$ Brent.

Note on 5 August 2011: I expected the panic to start by end of August. However seems like it has been already started.. So the recent panic has broken the relation. Gold is on the rise, oil is down..... This is a typical ringing bell of a recession... Next time I should state "ceteris paribus":)
One thing to watch is the base price level of oil...
www.barissanli.com

Recently I have completed a study on the effect of Carbon prices on Turkish electricity prices. Here is my result (Electricity supply curve MW vs $cent/kWh)