Global Energy Outlook from Davos (Jan 2010)

11:06 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
On 28th Jan 2010 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, "Global Energy Outlook" discussion has taken place. Chaired by Daniel Yergin, the session hosted Ilham Aliyev, BP's Tony Hayward, Saudi Aramco's Khalid Al Falih, Shell's Peter Voser, Dow Chemicals's Andrew Liveris and Total's Thierry Desmarest.

Video available from: http://wef2010.unitec-media.tv/20100128/20100128.html
Transcript: http://www.weforum.org/pdf/AM_2010/transcripts/global-energy.pdf


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US Government's Climate Portal

10:58 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
For data and relevant information. Especially climate data for planning and operations



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Global Energy Outlook

2:51 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Despite the major decline in energy prices from their peak in 2008, energy security concerns have increased as major producing and consuming economies differ significantly on how to develop a more secure and stable energy system.
How can producers and consumers develop mutually beneficial approaches to energy security?
Speakers:

Ilham Aliyev, Thierry Desmarest, Khalid A. Al Falih, Tony Hayward, Andrew N. Liveris, Peter Voser, Daniel Yergin

http://wef2010.unitec-media.tv/20100128/20100128.html


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UK's gas crises

4:27 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
As UK's gas demand heats a record high due to cold winter, gas suppy of 100 big customers has seen cut.Graph from The Oil Drum.

Guardian also writes:

The National Grid has told British Gas and other power firms to cut the supply to major corporate customers, in an attempt to preserve gas supply for households as the weather causes a surge in demand.

Links:
Is the United Kingdom facing a natural gas shortage?
Energy security questioned as National Grid cuts off gas to factories

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E.ON : Coal plants are necessary to keep the lights on

4:09 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
This Guardian news is an interesting piece

Ageing coal-fired power stations should be exempted from environmental regulations and kept open to stop the lights from going out, the chief executive of E.ON UK has urged the government.
You can read the rest from here : http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/18/eon-coal-plant-plea





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Iraq's Future Oil Production

5:46 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
As Iraq became more stabilised, the prospects for its oil production has increased. Here you can see enemy initiated attacks against invasion forces in Iraq.The difference is obvious.
 
Early Warning website has made a detailed analyses for Iraq's future production. By 2015 there is a possibility that Iraq may produce up to 12 million barrels/day. That is three folds of its previous peak (3.6 million b/d). Therefore keep an eye on Iraq's production and E&P developments.
 


Check the link : http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2009/12/iraqi-oil-production-history.html


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Me, listening Russian:)

12:31 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
That's me on the right side of the photo, from last week.

Istanbul is very nice during late summer and spring but i do not advice nov. and winter

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Turkey's Electricity Supply 2010 and beyond

10:48 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
First of all check:
http://www.teias.gov.tr/yukdagitim/kuruluguc.xls

You will see that Turkish Installed Capacity is: 44472.5 MWs (as of this month). You can also the wind energy column to make sure that it is updated:): 738 MW

Then check: http://www.teias.gov.tr/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri.xls

you will see that 2009 on month by month basis lower than 2008.

Then see the latest statistics from TEİAS regarding "production capacity and peaks" here
http://www.teias.gov.tr/istatistik2008/14.xls


From the last column check that
Installed capacity @ 2008: 41817 MW
Peak load @2008 : 30842 MW
See the "Gross Demand" and "Firm Production" columns

Result:
We didn't have such a big problem in 2008. Our Installed Capacity is now 2600 MW higher but our demand and peak is 4% lower than 2008. The hardest years for Turkish system are the drought years, it resembles Norway's system in that sense due to high hydro capacity.

As a rule of thumb : (safe side-approximation)
Multiply the installed capacity by 4650 hours for higher scenario 4500 for lower scenario(capacity utilization sort of thing, this is a rough approximation, use Enerji Ekonomisi by Behçet Yücel for detailed calculation- and also note that system has the ability to achieve more than 5000 hours average).

If the resulted number is less than the expected demand then it means the system is in stress.

So
44472.5 MW * 4500 hours = 200 TWh
44472.5 MW * 4650 hours = 206.8 TWh

Expected demand for 2009 is 194 TWhs.
Expected demand for 2010 is 206.6 TWhs.

So without any additional capacity for the next year this capacity should be enough till the end of 2010 even for the first 6 months of 2011. I personally expect Turkey's installed capacity to reach close to the 50000 MW in 2012

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GE's Future Technologies

6:09 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
I have never heard of Pulse Detonation Technology. But GE's working on it to increase the efficiency of gas turbines. Check the interview

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