Turkey's Electricity Supply 2010 and beyond

10:48 AM Posted by Baris Sanli
First of all check:
http://www.teias.gov.tr/yukdagitim/kuruluguc.xls

You will see that Turkish Installed Capacity is: 44472.5 MWs (as of this month). You can also the wind energy column to make sure that it is updated:): 738 MW

Then check: http://www.teias.gov.tr/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri/AylikElektrikIstatistikleri.xls

you will see that 2009 on month by month basis lower than 2008.

Then see the latest statistics from TEİAS regarding "production capacity and peaks" here
http://www.teias.gov.tr/istatistik2008/14.xls


From the last column check that
Installed capacity @ 2008: 41817 MW
Peak load @2008 : 30842 MW
See the "Gross Demand" and "Firm Production" columns

Result:
We didn't have such a big problem in 2008. Our Installed Capacity is now 2600 MW higher but our demand and peak is 4% lower than 2008. The hardest years for Turkish system are the drought years, it resembles Norway's system in that sense due to high hydro capacity.

As a rule of thumb : (safe side-approximation)
Multiply the installed capacity by 4650 hours for higher scenario 4500 for lower scenario(capacity utilization sort of thing, this is a rough approximation, use Enerji Ekonomisi by Behçet Yücel for detailed calculation- and also note that system has the ability to achieve more than 5000 hours average).

If the resulted number is less than the expected demand then it means the system is in stress.

So
44472.5 MW * 4500 hours = 200 TWh
44472.5 MW * 4650 hours = 206.8 TWh

Expected demand for 2009 is 194 TWhs.
Expected demand for 2010 is 206.6 TWhs.

So without any additional capacity for the next year this capacity should be enough till the end of 2010 even for the first 6 months of 2011. I personally expect Turkey's installed capacity to reach close to the 50000 MW in 2012
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