Matt Simmons : Has Oil And Gas Collapse Sealed Fate Of Peak Oil?

8:13 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
There is a very good presentation by Matt Simmons arguing the bad side of cheap oil. The low prices keeps the investments at low levels. Therefore the seeds of another oil shock will be planted soon, if prices do not climb to acceptable levels.

The presentation is available here : http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/SPE%20Gulf%20Coast.pdf
You can find other presentations from Matt Simmons from http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

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Oil shocks and Recessions

7:57 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses

I found the following website and report quite useful for understanding oil shocks followed by recessions. Here is a list of my key points:

1. "the drops in overall spending that were caused by higher oil prices proved to be the knockout punch for an economy that was already wobbly"
2."The fact that the biggest drop in output didn't occur until well after the oil price went up, and resulted not from the oil price itself but instead from the interaction with other factors and the dynamic forces unleashed when the overall level of economic activity began to decline, is also exactly the same pattern we saw in each of the previous recessions."
3."Was the oil shock of 2007-08 the sole cause of the recession? Certainly not. But did it make a material contribution? In my opinion, the answer unquestionably is yes."

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GridLAB-D Simulation Software

7:29 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses

If you are looking for open source programs for distribution system simulation, Gridlabd is an answer to your quest. The project is also hosted on Sourceforge. You can download and run the sample programs. But they also have a web based system. So without downloading you can run a sample from this website(http://www.gridlabd.org/GridLabWeb/)

"GridLAB-D™ is a new power distribution system simulation and analysis tool that provides valuable information to users who design and operate distribution systems, and to utilities that wish to take advantage of the latest energy technologies. It incorporates the most advanced modeling techniques, with high-performance algorithms to deliver the best in end-use modeling. GridLAB-D™ is coupled with distribution automation models and software integration tools for users of many power system analysis tools"


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Oilwatch Monthly : April 2009

7:20 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses

This version of the report starts with the criticization of IEA numbers, especially China. Crude Oil production is down by nearly 3 million barrels (not world liquid production). Check the oil demand of OPEC countries! There is a big drop in their demand as well. Also, have a look to the Mexico, UK and Norway.

Report is available here (Peakoil.nl)


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Predicting using Google Insight

7:23 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
If you are making forecasts, new and timely statistics are extremely important. You will also know that generally, new data come up with a lag. For example in Turkey it takes not less than 2 months for us to see crucial data. This recent article at Google Research will probably help us, all.
The paper by Varian and Choi can be downloaded from here. The mechanism is clever yet simple: use the normalized searched volumes from Google Insight to correlate with the real data like house sales, cars and etc.
Although I use some other data for Turkey, let me show you the effect of recent tax break on auto.

The tax break has been revealed on 16th March 2009 and the search volume is given above (keyword:oto, region: Turkey). The effect is close to %67. According to this article, the actual sale figures raise by 100%.

http://googleresearch.blogspot.com/2009/04/predicting-present-with-google-trends.html
http://google.com/googleblogs/pdfs/google_predicting_the_present.pdf
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/ekonomi/11470037.asp

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