Turkey's record Natural Gas and Electricity consumption

10:27 AM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
According to TEİAŞ, Turkish electricity system produced a record
  • 35446.1 MWe (Momentarily) - 16th Jan
  • 34971 MWe (hourly average) - 16 th Jan
  • 0.71 TWh maximum daily consumption in 12th Jan 2012
The previous record and alltime high maximum peak production happened on
28th July 2011 - 36112.4 MWe at 14:30 local time

Sabah newspaper also claims, maximum daily consumption has occured as
- 180 million m3 /day
- 170 million m3/day

This is due to extreme cold affecting Anatolia and Tracia...

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Energy Security question from a Russian Perspective

3:45 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
NG.ru has a comprehensive review of "Energy Security Question from a Russian Perspective"

Here are some of the parts:

"Already, in some regions of Russia there is a shortage of natural gas."
"An even greater threat will be a reduction in export volumes of fuel, when and if it coincides with a decrease in world prices for oil and gas"
"Change of average world oil prices at $ 1 per barrel will result in additional lost revenue or budget of the Russian Federation in the amount of 55-58 billion rubles (1.8 billion $)"

"Federal budget for 2012 with an estimated deficit of 1.5% of GDP is calculated based on the average price of Urals crude at $ 100 per barrel. Deficit budget in 2012 is possible at 117 dollars per barrel"

"Average distance delivery of raw materials is more than 3000 km (from Libya - 600 km, Norway - a thousand km) "

"The main contradiction: for the development of new oil production of the Arctic Region is required to invest a minimum of 70-120 billion dollars at partial guarantee of success"

This part is especially important since it lists a bunch of possible disturbances to Russian energy security question:

"The situation is exacerbated by the fact that in recent years formed the world market for gas:
  • liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been actively competes with the natural gas,
  • in Europe served the Norwegian North Sea gas,
  • the U.S. actively developing shale gas deposits.
  • European natural gas consumption has decreased while because of competition from LNG.
  • The gas pricing is increasingly moving away from contract prices to spot, as a result of this purchase price of Russian gas is reduced."

link: http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html

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Iranian gas usage figures

2:12 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
From oilru.com
A summary of Iranian gas usage from a Russian website:

"Today, about 53% rural and 95% of the urban population of Iran, a total of about 75% of the population throughout the country, provided with cooking gas""this year in Iran came early cold, which was not observed for the past 43 years"" the maximum daily gas consumption in the industry is fixed at around 92 million cubic meters/day. Last year the figure was 72 million cubic meters/day, reports Iran News."


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Why South Stream can be more expensive than Nord Stream?

12:04 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
Answer : "corrosive hydrogen sulfide environment"

Nord vs South Stream are undersea pipelines. But there are different costs. Reason is below

Nord Stream: 1220 km ... 9 billion €
South Stream: 900 km depth 2150 ms ... expected cost with cost overruns 10 billion €
From Jamestown:
"As planned, South Stream’s seabed pipeline is shorter but more expensive than the Nord Stream One pipeline on the Baltic seabed. That Baltic line, completed in November 2011, runs 1,220 kilometers; and it has cost some 9 billion Euros ($11.4 billion) to build, rather than the 6 billion Euros ($7.6 billion) declared at the start in 2006. In light of that experience, cost overruns on South Stream must be anticipated, and the 10 billion Euros ($12.7 billion) initial estimate questioned accordingly"

From NG:
this is due to "corrosive hydrogen sulfide environment"

Ref:
Алексей Давыдович Хайтун, http://www.ng.ru/energy/2012-01-17/9_fuel.html



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ExxonMobil and OMV Romania began drilling in the Black Sea

3:17 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
The following news item from Ukranian news website has important information:

"drilling operations for oil and gas exploration in the Black Sea shelf"

"It will be the Romanian's first deep wheel"

"The drilling rig will be Deepwater Champion, owned by Transocean, used during the operations off the coast of Turkey"
"It is estimated OMV Petrom, drilling will take about 90 days."
"Initial costs for companies on exploration is estimated at $ 150 million"
"If any sufficient reserves are to be found OMV Petrom and Exxon are willing to invest $ 3 billion to $ 10 billion in development projects."
http://www.oilnews.com.ua/news/article13605.html

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Ukraine's Response to "South Stream"

8:20 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
This is an interesting piece to read...
"I see a few key elements for strengthening the energy security of Ukraine. First - development of its shale gas and coal deposits of methane gas, as well as the development of gas fields in the Black Sea shelf. The second - strengthening energy cooperation with Europe, particularly in the context of the potential construction of new pipelines through Turkish territory. Third - Ukraine needs to improve energy efficiency. Fourth - the price reform, which should be done carefully and structured to minimize the negative impact on the industry and low-income categories of consumers ", - said R. Mills."
"Ukraine has significant potential shale gas, which was estimated preliminarily to 11.3 trillion cubic meters"
"Gazprom" in the project owned 50% of Italian concern Eni - 20%, France's EDF and German Wintershall - 15% of the shares.


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US's Shale, China's Coal Bed Methane

12:09 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
According to Chinese The National Energy Administration, China will increase natural gas through unconventional gas resources. It is not shale but CBD (Coal Bed Methane)
"
China's coal-bed methane output will reach 30 billion cubic meters in 2015."
"
The country aims to add 1 trillion cubic meters of coal-bed methane to its reserves over the next four years"
"
China will invest 116.6 billion yuan in coal-bed methane production over the next four years, and establish 13 pipelines with a capacity of 12 billion cubic meters"
"
The country's methane resources are estimated at 37 trillion cubic meters, ranking third in the world."
"China is targeting at least a 40-percent reduction in coal mine gas leak accidents and their death tolls by 2015,"

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2011-12/31/c_131337443.htm


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How much does the Turkmen gas cost to the Chinese

4:38 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
From Newsland.ru

"Russia wants to sell gas to China at $ 400 per thousand cubic meters - as well as in Europe.
Turkmen sells to the Chinese only $ 250[well head price]. Beijing has invested 4 billion in South Yoloten (and still), he wants all of the gas, which can only get to a very successful pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (which he built), acting for two years. Beijing insatiable; oil company CNPC intends to increase by 2015, gas imports from Central Asia no less than 500%"


http://www.newsland.ru/news/detail/id/857577/

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Turkish Installed Capacity by the End of 2011 and Power Generation

4:00 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
According to TEİAŞ figures by the end of 2011 Turkish Electricity Installed Capacity is 53050 MW. By the end of 2010 it was 49524 MW. So it is at least 3526 MW additional capacity comissioned in 2011. Wind capacity by the end 2011 is 1691 MW.

In terms of power generation, there is a 8.9% increase in electricity demand increasing from 210.4 TWh to 229.3 TWh. The monthly breakdown of demand and its comparison YoY is here:



Source : www.teias.gov.tr

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European Gas demand to stagnate and its effect on oil indexed pricing

3:42 PM Reporter: Baris Sanli 0 Responses
The following Reuters news is interesting.
French bank Societe Generale claims : "European gas demand will remain below 2008 levels until 2017 and the weak outlook could force suppliers like Russia's Gazprom and Norway's Statoil to reduce their gas prices"....
It also adds : "
SocGen said in a research note that it expected year-on-year demand for gas to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012, compared with a record 9.5 percent drop in 2011."
But the interesting thing is here:
"We believe Statoil could end up further reducing the assumed 75 percent oil-indexation for continental buyers in order to boost medium-term demand for gas (as a fuel for power generation). We suspect that after tough negotiations, it could be reduced to 55 percent from October 2012."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/europe-energy-gas-idUSL6E8C30QW20120103

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