5:21 PM
Reporter:
Baris Sanli
From 321energy.com web site, Frank Holmes has this nice graph, which should be in the collection. The graph shows the seasonal changes in oil prices with 28, 15 and 5 year patterns. It is interesting to see these variations in terms of different time spans.
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4:53 PM
Reporter:
Baris Sanli
After all the climate change discussions, TNR has a review of a report and ideas about why climate change may have failed to achieve the desired goals. Although the game is not over yet, the favourable atmosphere for climate change is not that favourable any more.
At one instance, the writer says:
"Mike Hulme, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia, has argued that greens mistakenly treated global warming as a run-of-the-mill environmental problem similar to, say, acid rain. But, with acid rain, feasible solutions were already available—namely, scrubbers and low-sulfur coal—that made it relatively straightforward to cap sulfur-dioxide emissions. "I think this is a key sentence from my viewpoint
References:
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4:23 PM
Reporter:
Baris Sanli
There are very good articles on oil prices and macroeconomics. "The oil price and macroeconomy: what's going on?" by Olivier Blanchard and Marianna Riggi claims that the changes in labor markets and monetary policies("structural changes") can be the usual suspects when it comes to resilient economies to oil price hikes. They have two conclusions: 1. "weakening unions, increasing competition and declining minimum wage have made the structure of labor compensation much more flexible in the 2000s than it was in the 1970s"
2. "increased anchoring of inflation expectations, and in particular with the decrease in the response of expected inflation to an oil price surge since the mid-1980s"
There is also "Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices" , from the same writers is also giving the details for such conclusions.
Also, "Some thoughts on Energy independence" from EconBrowser has a good discussion for demand side and supply side effects of oil prices. He concludes : "increasing the substitutability between energy and other consumption goods, and reducing the amount of oil use would mitigate the negative consequences of oil price shocks."
References:
The oil price and macroeconomy: what's going on?, by Olivier Blanchard and Marianna Riggi http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/4341
Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices" , http://www.nber.org/papers/w15467
Some thoughts on Energy independence, http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2011/04/some_thoughts_o_2.html
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12:15 PM
Reporter:
Baris Sanli
"Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies" by Gail Cohen, Frederick Joutz and Prakash Loungani is an interesting paper to read. They took several indices (supply, imports, political risks, size of importer countries and distance between capitals ) to measure energy security for natural gas and oil
What is interesting was the trend for oil in the computed index(there is a decrease till 1999 and a rebound in 2003.) Also keep in mind:
"For about two-thirds of the countries, there has been a decrease in CSI values – an
increase in measured energy security – between 2000 and 2008. [...] For quite a few countries, the decrease comes about not so much because of mere diversification in the sources of energy supplies but because of the lower political risk associated with some of their suppliers.", p14
My critique: "it is not just the fuel per se, but the importance of fuel in the main consuming sector and the critical level of this fuel for this sector. See for example transportation and its dependence on oil,
Reference:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp1139.pdf
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10:48 AM
Reporter:
Baris Sanli
While reading this piece from IAEE blog, it occured to me that one needs to have an understanding of the broader affects of energy price increases. So I checked the tables from 2002 from TurkStat's web page.
The graph represents the percentage of energy products used in the sectoral output(without value added). As the most energy intensive industries locate at the top, where energy inelastic industries position at the bottom.
Remember this table is from 2002
And the results can be downloaded from here:
https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B_ar4GSVZ_k5ODhiMzYyNTEtZWNhOS00Zjc2LWExY2QtNGRjOGE2YzdlMTRh&hl=tr
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From 321energy.com web site, Frank Holmes has this nice graph, which should be in the collection. The graph shows the seasonal changes in oil prices with 28, 15 and 5 year patterns. It is interesting to see these variations in terms of different time spans.
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